As an organisation focusing on early warning and conflict prevention, Crisis Group is especially concerned with places where the current global health challenge intersects with wars or political conditions – such as weak institutions, communal tensions, lack of trust in leaders and inter-state rivalries – that could give rise to new crises or exacerbate existing ones. They also hope to identify cases where the disease could, with effective diplomacy, stimulate reductions in tensions. This briefing, the first in a series of Crisis Group publications on COVID-19 and its effects on the conflict landscape, draws primarily from the input of their analysts across the globe, and identifies seven trends to watch during the pandemic.

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