Dire predictions regarding the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict and violence have proliferated since the pandemic began. One notable forecast projects that thirteen countries are likely to experience new conflicts in the next two years due to the exacerbating effects of the pandemic. COVID-19 is now widely understood as a potential threat multiplier that can amplify existing conflict drivers, as well as an accelerant of existing conflict processes that can hasten a spiral into deeper instability. Research from past pandemics, like HIV/AIDS and Ebola, makes clear that exposure to infectious disease increases the risk of armed conflict. Conflict, in turn, tends to exacerbate disease transmission and hinder public health responses. Pandemics have a similar effect as other external shocks, such as natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and droughts), extreme temperature rise, declines in export prices and economic crises—all of which are associated with the outbreak or intensification of conflict within a year of onset, especially in low-income and ethno-linguistically fragmented countries. Read more.