Rumbek Centre County, Lakes State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 153,550
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 134,572
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 216,017

Ethnic groups: Agar Dinka (Kuei, Ruop)

Displacement Figures Q2 2022: 4,815 IDPs (-105 Q1 2020) and 12,720 returnees (-3,665 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Crisis (Phase 3); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Crisis (Phase 3); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Rumbek Centre County is located in Lakes State. It borders Rumbek North County to the north, Rumbek East County to the south-east, Wulu County to the south-west, and Cueibet County to the west. It also borders Unity State (Panyijiar County) to the north-east.

The county is classified in the Western flood plains sorghum and cattle livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018). It is prone to flooding and turns into swamps during the rainy season, notably in Amongpiny, Malek and Mayom payams. County residents rely on both farming and livestock herding for their livelihoods – estimates from 2018 report that 60% of households engage in agriculture (FAO/WFP 2018). This remains the case in figures from 2021 (FAO/WFP 2022). Gross cereal yields for Rumbek Centre County were at 0.9 tonnes per hectare in 2021, increasing to 1 tonne per hectare in 2022 (FAO/WFP 2023). People herd cattle and goats, in addition to cultivating groundnut, maize, sorghum, okra, cucumber, onions, beans and pumpkin. Wild water lily seeds and nuts are also consumed. Most of the cereal sold in town is imported from Uganda. In addition to employment with the government, many residents engage in trade.

IPC projections put Rumbek Centre County at crisis (IPC level 3) levels in November 2022, with food insecurity conditions projected to persist at the same level until March 2023, whereupon it deteriorates to emergency (IPC level 4) levels.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES

The largest urban area in Rumbek Centre County is Rumbek town, which is located in the south of the county and serves as both the capital of Lakes State and the county headquarters. It is a centre for trade and commerce for surrounding counties and provides an important logistics and operational base. County residents have better access to markets relative to surrounding counties, however high prices for goods – due to market disruptions related to general insecurity and legal and illegal taxation – have been a deterrent to securing essential supplies.

Rumbek Centre County is home to three (3) Early Childhood Development centres, fifty-eight (58) primary schools and eight (8) secondary schools including Rumbek National Secondary, the all-girls Loreto Girls Secondary and the all-boys La Salle Secondary, all in Matangai Payam.

Rumbek Centre County was reported to have twenty-three (23) health facilities, all of which were reported to be functional. Among them are fifteen (15) PHCUs, six (6) PHCCs and two (2) hospitals in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 1.04 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 1.39 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. Both Rumbek State Hospital and Kiir Mayardit Women’s Hospital are reported to have limited functionality.

The county received a limited number of IDPs following the outbreak of fighting in December 2013. By June 2016 the county was hosting an estimated 5,662 IDPs, however they appear to be living throughout the region instead of one central location. According to a REACH assessment from 2019, there has been tension between members of the host community and IDPs over local resources. This was compounded in 2019 when flooding that impacted Rumbek North led communities to move to Rumbek Centre with their cattle. Changes in cattle migration routes, whether due to natural disasters or insecurity, have also been observed in Rumbek Centre.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, there are over 130,400 people with humanitarian needs in Rumbek Centre County (a noticeable increase from 94,700 in 2021), which is 60% of the estimated population for the county reported in the HNO. Insecurity along the main roads leading into Rumbek Centre has prevented consistent humanitarian access and has particularly impacted local markets which depend on road transportation for the supply of goods.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Rumbek town is strategically positioned on the crossroads connecting the various counties of western Lakes State, and on to the neighbouring states of Warrap, Unity, and Western Equatoria. The town has also played a significant role in the history of the SPLM/A. After 1997, it became the headquarters of the movement, and in 2004 the town held a pivotal meeting to defuse tensions within the SPLM/A.

In addition to its historical prominence, the Rumbek area has also become known for fluctuating levels of localised conflicts. In Rumbek Centre County, the arming of non-state groups during times of conflict has been mirrored through a series of contentious disarmament campaigns, while periods defined by political fragmentation and the emergence of security vacuums have been followed by approaches aiming to centralise and reassert state power. Yet efforts at suppressing conflict without attending to their underlying causes have had mixed results, and have at times led to violence being displaced to other areas, or resulted in a reconfiguration of violent relationships between the state and non-state spheres rather than a reduction in violence.

Meanwhile, concerted initiatives aimed at establishing peacebuilding institutions have illustrated how approaches based upon dialogue, justice, and social consensus – rather than on the projection or monopolisation of power – have the potential to uphold peace and demilitarise politics. However, multiple peace dialogues and settlements have often faced challenges from processes of political, economic, and social change that have intensified insecurity. Recurrent localised conflict and cattle raiding in the Rumbek area is enmeshed in processes of change similar to other predominantly pastoralist areas of South Sudan, which have rendered cattle keeping an increasingly precarious livelihood strategy (RVI 2021), with the accumulation of large numbers of cattle by certain elites also affecting social and customary justice systems through causing imbalances in compensation and dowry payments (Pendle 2018).

Historical conflict and peacebuilding dynamics prior to CPA (pre-2005)

During the second Sudanese civil war (1983-2005), Rumbek was an early SPLM/A target. Intensive fighting in the Rumbek area drove significant displacement and contributed to famine conditions in the town itself by 1985. The SPLM/A briefly seized Rumbek town for two months in 1986, with heavy fighting once again resuming in the area by the end of the decade (Burr and Collins 1995, p.34, 236; PACT Sudan 2006, p.171). The SPLM/A ultimately succeeded in permanently capturing Rumbek town under Operation Thunderbolt in 1997. This was accomplished with the assistance of local gelweng (cattle guards), some of whom had been armed by the movement (Nyaba 2001, p.5; O’Brien 2009, p.25). Rumbek would become a hub for NGO and relief organisations as well as the new headquarters for the SPLM/A (Rolandsen 2005, pp.164-65). Although the Rumbek area provided significant numbers of recruits to the SPLM/A (alongside support from some gelweng), as with areas in eastern parts of Lakes State relations between residents of Rumbek and the SPLM/A could at times be fraught (Leonardi 2013, p.178).

After the 1991 SPLM/A split, localised insecurity spread across much of Lakes State. Increasingly fragmented SPLM/A forces were unable to meaningfully intervene to halt proliferating localised conflicts, that often related to disputes over cattle raiding, grazing areas, bride prices, and various unresolved grievances (PACT Sudan 2006, p.189). The insecurity associated with the post-1991 power vacuum extended to rural areas around Rumbek and within Rumbek town itself (Young 2021, p.155), and intensified by the late 1990s. Inter-sectional conflicts spread among parts of the Dinka Agar community in Rumbek Centre, as conflicts simmered among parts of the Agar and Gok Dinka clans to the west; the Dinka Agar and the Atuot/Atwot to the east; and Dinka and Atuot pastoralists and agriculturalist ’Jur Beli’/Bel communities around Mvolo County to the south (PACT Sudan 2006, p.190). While a number of these conflicts have roots dating from before the second civil war, the spread of firearms, the militarisation of community relations, and the erosion of effective justice mechanisms created a fertile environment for conflicts to re-escalate. As discussed below, inter-sectional and inter-clan conflicts have resumed in similar circumstances at multiple points since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005.

In the early 2000s, efforts were made to reconcile the various communities of Lakes State. These followed an SPLM/A disarmament campaign of the gelweng in late 2000 that was conducted in several areas of Lakes State (including the Greater Rumbek area), though was accompanied by allegations of abuses (Nyaba 2001, p.9, 15). In 2002, customary authorities approached the New Sudan Council of Churches to convene peace and reconciliation meetings. With the assistance of international peacebuilders, civil society, members of the local judiciary and SPLM/A, a series of consultative meetings to address conflicts in and around Lakes State were held in Panakar near to Yirol town (PACT Sudan 2006, pp.189-192; Ryle and Amuom 2018, pp.34-36).

These meetings paved the way for the formation of the Panakar Peace Council in early 2004, establishing a peacebuilding institution for peace committees and representatives in the region to meet and begin the process of addressing the underlying and proximate causes of conflict. This created an infrastructure that would be used for regular peace conferences to address conflicts in parts Lakes State and several adjoining areas over the following years. In addition to the process that led to the formation of the Panakar Peace Council, Dinka communities from Rumbek area had also been involved in 1999 Wunlit Peace Conference (Johnson 2003, p.125), and in 2003 Rumbek hosted a follow-up conference to Wunlit. Although these efforts had an impact on levels of violence in the Rumbek area, insecurity was reported to have increased in the run-up to the CPA (IRIN 2004).

CPA and Early Independence (2005-2013)

After the signing of the CPA in January 2005, Rumbek was the provisional capital of the autonomous Southern Sudan region, before the capital was relocated to Juba later that year (Sudan Tribune 2005). Across the CPA era, localised conflicts resurfaced in the Greater Rumbek area, often taking the form of cattle raiding and grazing disputes (Sudan Tribune 2011). Within Rumbek Centre, these conflicts tended to cluster around border areas, notably near to the borders with Cueibet and Rumbek East counties, and along the border with Unity State’s Panyijiar County (UNDP 2012, p.25). Additionally, border disputes between Rumbek Centre and Wulu and Panyijiar counties were reported, while a border dispute dating back to the separation of Cueibet from Rumbek in 1999 persisted (Nyaba 2001, p.3; UNDP 2012, p.7). Following independence in 2011, conflict escalated among parts of the Ruop and Kuei sections of the Dinka Agar (Sudan Tribune 2013a), while violence reportedly increased along the border with Panyijiar (Sudan Tribune 2013b).

In Lakes State, local and cross-border instability had been linked to the increasing levels of gun ownership in the area since the 1990s. Accordingly, various disarmament campaigns have been undertaken in Lakes– including Rumbek County – since the CPA was signed. In the early years of the CPA, authorities in Rumbek attempted to reimpose order in and around the town as security deteriorated, including through conducting two disarmament campaigns of the gelweng in 2006 and 2007 (O’Brien 2009, pp.25-26). Further disarmament was undertaken during the 2008 national disarmament campaign, with Human Rights Watch (2009) and the Small Arms Survey (O’Brien 2009, pp.29-32) reporting that soldiers deployed to Rumbek town engaged in conduct that resulted in increased insecurity, prompting their removal from the town by authorities. However, doubts have been raised as to the efficacy of the campaigns, amid allegations that collected arms were re-circulated into certain communities (Pospisil 2023, p.4; Ryle and Amuom 2018, p.59). Additionally, disarmament has at times been associated with violence and a deterioration of relations between forces undertaking the disarmament and some local communities.

South Sudanese Civil War (2013-2018)

Rumbek Centre was not directly affected by the national conflict between SPLA and SPLA-IO (2013-2018), with the government controlling Rumbek town and its surroundings throughout the conflict. However, violence between Dinka Agar sections in and around Rumbek Centre flared at several points during the national conflict, with surges in violent conflict reported in 2014, 2015, and 2017 (Sudan Tribune 2014b; CEPO 2015; Reuters 2017). These conflicts also involved parts of the Pakam section, who are traditionally based in Rumbek North, though were displaced to parts of Rumbek Centre and Cueibet counties during the second Sudanese civil war. A series of peace dialogues were run by CEPO in 2014 and 2015, which sought to address conflicts taking place between parts of the Ruop section and the Kuei and Pakam sections (Oxfam 2016). Further peace dialogues covering the Greater Rumbek area occurred in 2017 (POF 2020, p.29, 39-40; Sudan Tribune 2017).

Escalating localised violence and recentralisation (2018-present)

Following the signing of the R-ARCSS in 2018, localised conflicts and cattle raiding once again increased across much of Lakes State, with western areas of the state becoming focal points for the violence (Watson 2021). Within Rumbek Centre, clashes among a number of Dinka Agar sections – and between parts of the Agar and Gok (of neighbouring Cueibet County) clans – became increasingly widespread and lethal, and had significant repercussions for livelihoods in affected areas (REACH 2019; Radio Tamazuj 2020a; Radio Tamazuj 2020b; Radio Tamazuj 2020c). As with previous episodes of localised violence in the Rumbek area, widespread gun ownership and a lack of credible justice mechanisms created an enabling environment for conflict to become entrenched.

A number of developments have taken place in and around the county which have been linked to a reduction in cattle-related violence and insecurity. Since late 2020, several Dinka Agar communities have engaged with local authorities and peacebuidling organisations to resolve issues relating to cattle migration, including the mediation of disputes.  The approach favoured by the new governor appointed in 2021 combines coercive measures to impose order with a resurrection of legal systems and an empowerment of some traditional authorities (Pospisil 2023). Although incidents have occurred within Rumbek town (Catholic News Agency 2022), the approach has been associated with rising perceptions of security in much of Rumbek Centre County, alongside a reduction in ambushes on the road connecting Rumbek and Yirol towns (Pospisil 2023). Unlike previous attempts at reimposing order, there are indications that this approach has generated improvements in the security situation. However, the approach has also been criticised for relying on extra-legal means, despite the revival of legal systems and the use of relatively effective mobile courts. For instance, the UN Human Rights Council (2022, p.7) reported allegations of a number of extra-judicial killings since mid-2021.

While insecurity in rural and peri-urban areas has been reduced, tensions within Rumbek town and along the border areas have begun to resurface. In March 2023, a contentious demolition of houses in a suburb of Rumbek increased tensions in the town. Pressures relating to land access within Rumbek town date back to the CPA-era, with groups from outside of the town and its surroundings allegedly experiencing particular difficulties in procuring land (de Simone 2022, p.167). This was followed by a security incident that resulted in the killing of an official in September 2023 (Eye Radio 2023). More recently, cattle raiding has re-escalated along the border with Panyijiar County (Eye Radio 2021; Radio Tamazuj 2023), and, as is discussed further in the profiles for Tonj East and Rumbek North counties, violence has markedly increased along parts of the border between Warrap and Lakes states. These trends are suggestive of limits to security- and state-centric approaches, specifically their tendency to displace rather than resolve violence. However, efforts at building a collective understanding of dynamics and conflict and peace have also been underway, notably with peace meetings involving various local communities and representatives that took place in Rumbek town in early 2023 (Saferworld 2024).

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams listed in Government and UN documents: Jiir (County HQ in Rumbek Town), Amongpiny, Malek, Matangai, Mayom
Additional payams listed by local actors: Rumbek Town (County Headquarters)

UN OCHA 2020 map of Rumbek Centre County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-rumbek-centre-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• A primary road runs east to Yirol town and then on to Juba via Terekeka (Central Equatoria State). The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during the dry season of 2023, though during the rainy season of 2022 the road was designated impassable between Rumbek and Mingkaman, and “passable with difficulties” between Mingkaman and Terekeka (and thereafter passable to Juba).
• A primary road runs north out of Rumbek to the Unity State capital of Bentiu, via Maper in Rumbek North County. During both the rainy and dry seasons of 2022 and 2023 respectively, the road was deemed impassable according to the Logistics Cluster.
• A primary road also runs southwards to Mundri (via Mvolo) in Western Equatoria State. The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023.
• A primary road runs from Rumbek to Wau town in Western Bahr-el Ghazal State, via Tonj town (in Warrap State). The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023.

UNHAS-Recognized Heli Landing Sites and Fixed-Wing Airplane Airstrips: Rumbek

REFERENCES

Burr, J.M. and Collins, R.O. (1995). Requiem For the Sudan: War, Drought, And Disaster Relief on the Nile. Boulder, CO.: Westview Press.

Catholic News Agency. (2022). Catholic priest among 4 sentenced in shooting of South Sudan bishop-elect. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

CEPO. (2015). 70 people were killed. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

de Simone, S. (2022). State-building South Sudan: International Intervention and the Formation of a Fragmented State. Leiden: Brill.

Eye Radio. (2021). At least 7 suspected cattle raiders killed in Lakes state. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

Eye Radio. (2023). Lakes State’s RRC chairperson shot dead. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 13 July 2023.

Gurtong (2015). 7 killed in a cattle raid attempt in Rumbek North County. 20 January 2015. Retrieved via Wayback Machine 18 July 2023.

Human Rights Watch. (2009). “There is No Protection”: Insecurity and Human Rights in Southern Sudan. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

IRIN. [The New Humanitarian] (2004). Sudan: Conflict in the south escalates ahead of peace deal. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Leonardi, C. (2013). Dealing with Government in South Sudan: Histories of Chiefship, Community and State. Oxford: James Currey.

Nyaba, P.A. (2001). The Disarmament of the Gel-Weng of Bahr El Ghazal and the Consolidation of the Dinka Nuer Peace Agreement. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

O’Brien, A. (2009). Shots in the Dark: The 2008 South Sudan Civilian Disarmament Campaign. Small Arms Survey. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

Oxfam. (2016). Preventing Cattle Raiding Violence in South Sudan: Local level peace building focusing on young people. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

PACT Sudan. (2006). Sudan Peace Fund (SPF): Final Report October 2022 – December 2005. USAID.

Pendle, N.  (2018). ‘The dead are just to drink from’: recycling ideas of revenge among the western Dinka, South Sudan‘, Africa, 88 (1), 99-121. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pospisil, J. (2023). Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice. Retrieved 6 November 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2020a). Communal fighting leaves 9 dead in Western Lakes. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

Radio Tamazuj. (2020b). 14 killed, 20 wounded in Lakes State inter-communal violence. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2020c). Deadly intercommunal clashes reported in Lakes State. Retrieved 9 February 2024.

Radio Tamazuj. (2023). Lakes: 8 killed, 8 others wounded in cattle raids. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

REACH. (2019). Western Lakes Pop. Movement, Livelihoods and Food Security Profile. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Reuters. (2017). Death toll from fighting in South Sudan’s Great Lakes rises to 170. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Rolandsen, Ø. (2005). Guerrilla Government: Political Changes in the Southern Sudan during the 1990s. Mordiska Afrikainstitutet.

RVI, Rift Valley Institute. (2021). South Sudan: Youth, violence and livelihoods. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Ryle, J. and Amuom, M. (2018). Peace is the Name of Our Cattle-Camp. Rift Valley Institute. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2012). Civilian disarmament in South Sudan: A legacy of struggle. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2024). Wunlit peace meeting: A shared vision for peace. Retrieved 7 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2005). Rumbek to become south Sudanese “capital” following peace deal. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2011). Cattle raids kill at least 250 in Lakes state in 2011. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2013a). Lakes state: Revenge clashes leave 25 dead and 30 wounded. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2013b). Unity state condemns women’s abduction in cattle raid. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2013c). Lakes: Two killed and four wounded in forceful disarmament. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2014a). Five killed in failed Lakes state disarmament. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2014b). Lakes state violence kills 30 people in Rumbek. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2017). More than 40 killed in South Sudan ethnic clash. Retrieved 9 February 2024.

UNDP. (2012). Community Consultation Report: Lakes State. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

UN Human Rights Council. (2022). Report of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, A/HRC/49/78. Retrieved 6 February 2024.

Watson, D. (2021). Surface Tension: ‘Communal’ Violence and Elite Ambitions in South Sudan. ACLED. Retrieved 5 February 2024.

Young, J. (2021). ‘South Sudan: The Fractured State’ in Markakis, J., Schlee, G., and Young, J. (eds) The Nation State: A Wrong Model for the Horn of Africa, pp. 145-166. Berlin: Max Planck Research Library for the History and Development of Knowledge.

REPORTS on RUMBEK CENTRE

Daniel, E. O., et al. (2019). Factors Contributing to Missed Opportunities and Incomplete Vaccination of Children: A Focus on Mothers in Rumbek Centre County of Lakes State South Sudan. World Journal of Public Health 3(3) p.47-54. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Ellsberg, M., Ovince, J., Murphy, M., Blackwell, A., Reddy, D., Stennes, J.& Contreras, M. (2020). No safe place: Prevalence and correlates of violence against conflict-affected women and girls in South Sudan. PLoS one, 15(10), e0237965. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IOM. (2013). Village Assessment Survey: Rumbek Centre County Atlas. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Mawson, A.N.M. (1989). The Triumph of Life: Political Dispute and Religious Ceremonial Among the Agar Dinka of the Southern Sudan. Cambridge University PhD thesis, retrieved from Sudan Open Archive on 9 February 2024.

POF, Peacebuilding Opportunities Fund. (2020). What drives the cattle camps? Exploring the dynamics of pastoralist communities in western Lakes State, South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. and Wal, G. (2021). Law, War and Returns: Learning from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2014). Conflict Analysis: Lakes, Northern Bahr El Gazhal and Warrap States. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

RESCUE (2017). No Safe Place: A lifetime of violence for conflict-affected women and girls in South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2023). Conflict, gender-based violence and mental health in Lakes State: Perspectives from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.